Thursday, October 16, 2008

Top 26 Election Probabilities, In The Style of

Hey buddies... have you ever been to the site WELL YOU SHOULD, since it's on our blogroll. They're basically doing the best electoral projections you can buy right now. Well, okay. First off, you don't have to buy them. And second, it's a pretty small niche. BUT WHATEVER, this is my unabashed endorsement of 538.

In the spirit of their Scenario Analyses, I give you the top 26 unexplored potential events in the upcoming election (and probabilities thereof!). WAIT. What's a Scenario Analyses, you ask? Well... 538 analyzes ridiculously specific possible happenstances like the following:

ANYHOW! What about these possibilities!?!!?!

26. Obama loses Virginia, wins own virginity back, wins election – 4.15%

25. Obama wins cutest couple -- 99.9%

24. McCain wins Miss Congeniality – 0% (see U.S. Senate, The)

23. McCain loses the battle but wins the war – 0% (see Vietnam War, The)

22. Obama loses car keys and wallet, gets hungry, crashes a wedding to snag some food, poses as the photographer, the whole thing turns out to be a Mentos commercial… wins election -- 23.52%

21. Obama wins the raffle, but left early to make beautiful marital love with Michelle, McCain happens to hold the next ticket called, but Obama still wins the election -- 78.625% and two beautiful daughters (also, thanks Michael for letting me know I forgot the % on this one...)

20. Obama wins the World Series, just because -- 17.415%

19. Identical Map to 2005 (Bush v. Gorp… that time Bush went on a camping trip) -- .24%

18. Identical Map to 2003 (Bush v. Garp… that time someone recommended John Irving to Bush) – 41.14%

17. Identical Map to 1876 (Hayes v. Tilden) – 73.012%

16. Identical Map to 2076 (The Expanding Mechanized Terror of Bismarck, ND vs. Robo-Bobby Kennedy) – 010011%

15. McCain wins the Physical Challenge, wins election – 2.5%

14. McCain wins a glowing piece of that radical rock, the Agrocrag, wins election -- .25%

13. McCain wins the right to compete in Olmec’s Temple Games, wins election -- .025%

12. McCain spends too much time competing in 1990s Nickelodeon game shows, loses election – 89.1%

11. Obama loses Ohio, Joe the Plumber is Joe Sixpack, Joe Biden FTW, McCain loses peripheral vision, Obama wins election – 58.34%

10. McCain loses control of the Straight Talk express, crashes into a rock formation out West, meets some hippies, travels the desert, has a grand vision of the future, learns some life lessons, wins election – 18.4%

9. Obama loses bearings downtown, wanders around for a while, meets a gang of inner city toughs, teaches them to play baseball, wins election – 14.801%

8. Obama loses feeling in his hand from all the high fives, wins election -- YAAAY!%

7. McCain just friggin’ loses it, man – 96.69%

6. Obama loses himself in the music, the moment, he owns it, he better never let it go—wins election – 73.1%

5. McCain loses mind, replaces Palin with actual pitbull, wins election – 36.4%

4. McCain loses pitbull, buys replacement pitbull, spends a lot of time making the new pitbull look like the old pitbull, remembers that he was the owner of the original pitbull, wins election – 27.5%

3. McCain loses temper at pitbull situation, drinks a case of Molson with Levi Johnston, takes a nap, wins election – 21.87%

2. Levi Johnston loses the big hockey game, re-knocks Bristol Palin up out of anger, wins back his own pride – too soon, dude… (actually too soon, though)

1. Bristol Palin loses her baby, wins election – YIKES%

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